stock-lie-detector

Investing Isn't Speculation! Execute This! Investing Isn't Speculation! Execute This! Many new investors try to predict the market. What will be the next hot stock? When will the downturn end? They spend sleepless nights poring over charts. All of that is wasted energy on impossible predictions . The Pitfalls of Prediction: A Fast Track to Failure Emotional interference: Acting on a hunch like “It feels like it will go up” or “It seems like it will drop.” Chance hits: Getting lucky once or twice and convincing yourself you're a genius. Inconsistent approach: Changing strategies whenever a prediction fails, eventually reverting to planless trading. “Plan your trade and trade your plan.” — Tony Crabel The Illusion of Knowing the Unknown Attempting to predict the market is the same as pretending to know what you cannot . In both investing and life, it’s vital to be clear about what you do know and what you...

The One Must-Have Condition of a Good Investment Strategy No One Talks About The One Must-Have Condition of a Good Investment Strategy No One Talks About What makes a truly great investment strategy? Every day, countless articles and trading methods flood the market. Yet one crucial fact is rarely discussed. Great opportunities don't come often. And a good strategy doesn’t generate buy/sell signals frequently. Frequent Signals Are Actually a Warning If your strategy fires off signals several times a day, prompting you to buy and sell constantly, you need to think twice. Real opportunities aren’t that common. “A good strategy demands patience. A strategy that forces you to trade all the time risks being overwhelmed by market noise.” Why High Signal Frequency Is Problematic Accumulating transaction costs: Each trade rakes in fees, taxes, and spreads, quickly eroding any edge your strategy might have. Vulnerability to n...

Damn, I Lost Money Because of Trump Damn, I Lost Money Because of Trump "Damn, Trump’s comments wrecked my portfolio again." "Elon Musk tweeted something ridiculous and my stock crashed." "There was an earthquake, and the whole market panicked." "A foreign bank collapsed, and my stocks went down with it." If you’ve been trading stocks for a while, you’ve probably heard (or said) these phrases many times. I certainly have. But over time, I realized something: the true cause of losses is not external — it’s internal. External variables will always exist Trump's impulsive tweets, Musk's half-joking posts, unforeseen natural disasters, or unexpected bankruptcies — these external shocks are part of the market. And they will always be there. But the real question is not whether the event occurred, but rather: Was I exposed in a vulnerable position when it happened? If a single news headline can w...

Should I Cut My Losses Now? Should I Cut My Losses Now? The stock market does not care about your personal story. It’s a cold, indifferent place, and I assume you already understand that. What I’m about to share may feel blunt, but I offer it with sincerity, hoping it helps your long-term success. This is one of the most frequently asked questions—on blogs, forums, YouTube. “Should I cut my losses?” Let me ask you this instead: "Why did you buy this stock in the first place?" If you can't answer that clearly, then perhaps the very fact that you're asking this question means you didn’t have a clear strategy to begin with. Cutting Losses Isn’t About Timing—It’s About Your Strategy You shouldn’t sell just because the price dropped. You should sell when the reason you bought it no longer holds true . For example, if you bought based on a short-term technical pattern and that pattern has broken—low volume, key suppo...

A 13-Year Trader's Perspective on Stock Market Communities A 13-Year Trader's Perspective on Stock Market Communities The stock market dates back to 1602 in Amsterdam, making it over 400 years old. Yet, among modern-day participants, it's hard to find anyone with more than 30 years of actual trading experience. Ironically, stock communities are filled with posts from individuals who confidently share predictions or strategies as if they’ve uncovered the holy grail—often based on a single recent win. Have you ever seen someone back their claims with more than three years of statistically significant data? I rarely have. Most posts revolve around momentary profits, one-time successes, or screenshots showing a lucky gain. These aren't strategies; they’re anecdotes. That’s why I strongly doubt that any real, statistically validated strategy would be openly shared in such communities. As for myself, I would never reveal the co...

Are Penny Stocks Really Just Gambling? Are Penny Stocks Really Just Gambling? In a market lacking clear upward momentum, it’s all too easy—especially for beginners—to be lured by high-volatility stocks like penny stocks or speculative themes. When you lack a solid strategy or confidence, chasing volatile trades can feel like a shortcut to recovering losses. Typically defined as stocks trading under $1 (₩1,000), penny stocks —or micro-cap stocks in the U.S.—may seem appealing due to their low price and perceived explosive potential. But behind the scenes, they often come with risks that far outweigh their rewards. Why Are Penny Stocks So Tempting? The ability to buy a large number of shares for a small amount of money gives the illusion of profit potential. In reality, these stocks often lack liquidity and can be extremely difficult to sell at your intended price. Even when volume spikes due to temporary news or social media hype, the long...

US Stock Market Surges – Is This the Start of a Trend Reversal? US Stock Market Surges – Is This the Start of a Trend Reversal? April 9, 2025. Did you see it? The U.S. stock market soared 12% in just one day. I’ve been trading since 2011, and I can’t recall a single session where the Nasdaq gained 12%. Today is undoubtedly a historic day. Normally, I avoid using words like "surge" or "plunge"—since those are subjective—but today, there’s no dispute. This was a massive surge. Yes, markets often swing based on comments from the U.S. President or the Fed, but a 12% leap? That’s rare and remarkable. Even more surprising, it wasn’t just tech; nearly every sector participated. Is This Truly a Trend Reversal? Let’s get to the core question every trader is asking: "Is this surge the beginning of a trend reversal?" To answer that, you need to define what "trend" means to you. And that, in turn, depends on yo...